Outlook on Europe in 2024
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Lazard's Outlook series provides a forward-looking view, over the short, medium, and/or long term, of asset classes, sectors, regions, or countries from the view of Lazard Asset Management. In this edition, LAM portfolio managers share their outlook for Europe in 2024.
Summary
- Major European economies including Germany have either entered recession or are flirting with it as monetary conditions bite.
- European stocks have been boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts, but our European Equity team is perplexed by the level of markets at the start of a recession. Equity markets run the risk of hitting an air pocket should optimism subside as the full effects of multiple interest rate rises since 2021-2 hit home.
- Although the region’s macroeconomic outlook is unpromising, European stocks remain lowly valued versus history and on an international basis, suggesting there could still be scope for share price gains in 2024.
- Our European Fixed Income team also views market expectations of imminent rate cuts in Europe as being overly optimistic, although anticipates a positive year for European fixed income overall.
